The likelihood of a war can be graded by reference to the following five possibilities:
2: Improbable or Implausible.
4: Probable or plausible.
Right now, we judge that the likelihood of war is now in category 4.
If war breaks out, it will break out within the next few weeks to two months tops.
USG’s strategy and actions over the last three decades must share a great deal of the blame if war does occur.