Trump’s Presidency.

Trump’s Presidency appears to be in trouble. Here, here, here, and here.

To balance things out, there is this to consider.

In all fairness, it is difficult to blame Trump, even if the man did make mistakes, because separating fake mistakes from real ones is extremely difficult given the barrage of attacks and subversion his administration has suffered.

For instance, consider this.

Who can Trump trust?

Who can he rely on?

In any case, all of the problems (the media attacks, the leaks, the subversion) all provide good material to learn from. That is, they show how hard the challenge is to change Washington and USG.

What does Trump want?

The safest assumption is that Trump wants, above all, to be re-elected.

To be re-elected he needs to convince enough people, both his supporters, those who punted for him, and to persuade those who voted against him, to vote for him in 2020.

The best way to convince people for 2020 is to have some actual achievements under his belt.

To achieve some real success (however that is defined), Trump has to play the game.

The game in Washington is one of deal-making, persuading, pressuring, providing pork etc., etc.,

The problem, however, is that Trump is trying to govern in a normal way in an abnormal time.

USG is in crisis. 

Trump’s campaign plank, both in his foreign and domestic pitch, threatened to overturn some of the key assumptions, theories and practices that has underpinned USG’s paradigm since 1945.

As such, the Modern Structure (media, academia, courts, civil service, political parties) are all out to stop him in any way they can.

Trump has, given his New York accent and style, been compared to a Mafia Don: Tony Soprano. See Here, here, here.

(Spoilers alert).

It is highly likely that by the end of the Sopranos:

Tony

Was

Whacked

By

New

York.

The reason is that while the underboss of NY allowed Tony to take out Phil, the underboss, along with his consigliere, decided to take out Tony.

Why?

Optics.

An NJ family taking out a boss and then getting away with it would have looked bad, and all the NY soldiers would have grumbled that as a result of Phil getting whacked, the underboss and consigliere benefited.

Tony, mistakenly assumed, that with Phil out of the way, things would go back to normal.

Tony did not realize that his career was in crisis.

He had no support:

1: No Junior.

2: No Pussy.

3: No Furio.

4: No Silvio.

5: No Chris.

6: No Bobby.

In short, Tony no longer had enough Essentials to resist any attack, either from outside enemies (New York) or to prevent an internal coup (the other possibility was that Tony was whacked by Patsy Parisi).

Trump is in a similar situation.

In the end, it comes down to two choices.

Fight or flight.

Tony either had to whack, whack, whack and whack some more.

Or run.

Trump cannot govern in a “normal way”.

And there is no way, that Trump’s formal goals (immigration, Islamic terrorism, Russia or trade and manufacturing) can be achieved with the political structure as it is.

Trump needs to borrow a strategy from another Mafia Don: Michael Corleone.

Michael had a vision which was to move the Family out of New York and into the semi-legitimate life in Nevada.

To accomplish this goal, Michael had to settle accounts with all the enemies of the Family.

Trump cannot transition USG or America from one Paradigm to another without a purge of external and internal enemies.

One factor to consider is: why would any President want to go down in history as the man who terminated the Republic?

Probably, as we said earlier, Trump wants to win re-election and he wants to go down in history as a “Great President.”

His enemies won’t let him.

As we see it, Trump has two strategy options:

1: Long-term

2: Short-term.

With the long-term option, he get’s some wins – enough to eke out a win in 2020. Crucially, however, Trump allows his supporters and potential supporters to see just how corrupt and hostile the “swamp” is; enough to understand that it is an all or nothing battle.

The 2020 election will be hard, dirty and corrupt.

However, Trump needs the appearance of democratic legitimacy one-more-time.

He needs this, to show that his election in 2016 was not a fluke.

If he wins in 2020, he now has a mandate, and it will likely force his enemies in desperate straits.

Then, Trump acts.

He purges.

Essentially, the long-term strategy is to provide enough rope to his enemies.

Then, after 2020 he cuts the rope.

The short-term strategy is all of the above, but only on a shorter time frame.

 

 

 

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